Mathematics · Module 4
12 lessons · 48 problems
Probability & Statistics — full chapter
Learn each idea, drill it with Basic → Intermediate → Advanced problems, and finish with mixed practice. Every problem shows its thinking right after you answer.
12
lessons
48
practice problems
16
key formulas
0
answered · 0 correct
After this chapter you can
- Compute classical probabilities from a correctly counted sample space.
- Choose permutations vs combinations by asking whether order matters.
- Use complements for at-least-one phrasing (E1-48 zodiac pattern).
- Apply the addition rule, subtracting overlaps except when mutually exclusive.
- Condition with after shrinking the space.
- Test independence with the product rule; never multiply dependent draws.
- Solve urn-count systems like E3-48 and weight cases with total probability.
- Pick mean/median/mode to fit the data, ordering values for any median.
- Report variance vs standard deviation with correct units.
- Read frequency tables and charts literally; flag missing data (E2-47) instead of inventing it.
How to study this chapter
- Learn lessons 1–4: sample spaces, counting, complements, addition.
- Drill Basic practice, then read every trap you hit.
- Learn lessons 5–7: conditioning, independence, urn systems.
- Drill Intermediate practice, including the E1-48 and E3-48 patterns.
- Learn lessons 8–12: centers, spread, tables, charts, mixed tactics.
- Finish Advanced practice, then answer the 3 previous exam questions.
Lessons
Lesson 1 of 12
Sample Spaces and Classical Probability
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- over equally-likely outcomes
- Die: ; two dice: ordered pairs
- ; ,
- Partition check: probabilities over all cases sum to
- Favourable means counted inside , not wished for
Worked example
One fair die: ?
- , favourable .
- .
Classic trap
Lesson 2 of 12
Permutations vs Combinations
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Order matters
- Order irrelevant
- ;
- Team/committee wording combinations (never permute people into seats)
- Arrangement/ranking/password wording permutations
Worked example
From 5 people choose a 2-person team. How many?
- Order irrelevant: .
- Compute .
Classic trap
Lesson 3 of 12
Complements and At-Least-One
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- E1-48:
- E1-48 answer: (option A)
- Use complements before inclusion-exclusion whenever you see
Worked example
Zodiac: ?
- .
- Complement: .
Classic trap
Lesson 4 of 12
Addition Rule and Mutual Exclusivity
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Mutually exclusive: add directly
- Die:
- Cards:
- Never add overlapping events without subtracting the intersection
Worked example
, , : ?
- Add then subtract overlap: .
- Simplify.
Classic trap
Lesson 5 of 12
Conditional Probability
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Restrict to first, count inside
- Die given even, ( of )
- divides by ; divides by
- Without replacement, the condition is the shrunken bag
Worked example
Fair die, given the result is even: ?
- Restricted space: .
- Favourable inside it: , so .
Classic trap
Lesson 6 of 12
Independence and the Product Rule
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Independent
- Across independent trials, multiply:
- Never multiply for dependent draws (no replacement) — condition instead
- Mutually exclusive + dependent, not independent
- , independent
Worked example
, , independent: ?
- Independence licenses the product.
- Compute .
Classic trap
Lesson 7 of 12
Urn Systems and Total Probability
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Counts first: total count
- E3-48: , , ,
- E3-48 answers: , , (option A)
- Total probability:
- Bayes flips the condition:
Worked example
12 balls: , , : find .
- Counts: ; ; ; total gives , , .
- So .
Classic trap
Lesson 8 of 12
Mean, Median and Mode
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Mean
- Median (odd ): the -th ordered value
- Median (even ): average of the two middle ordered values
- Mode: most frequent (may not exist, or tie)
- Example: mean , median , mode
Worked example
Mean and median of .
- Mean: .
- Ordered already; median .
Mean ; median
Classic trap
Lesson 9 of 12
Variance and Standard Deviation
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- (same units as the data; variance is squared units)
- all values identical
- Example: mean , variance ,
- Range is the quick spread check
Worked example
Data : population variance?
- Mean ; squared deviations .
- Average: .
Classic trap
Lesson 10 of 12
Frequency Tables and Grouped Means
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Denominator is total frequency
- Example:
- Median position: odd -th; even middle-two average
- Mode of a table: the value with the largest
Worked example
Scores (freq 2), (freq 3), (freq 5): mean?
- Total ; students .
- Divide: .
Classic trap
Lesson 11 of 12
Reading Charts and the E2-47 Warning
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Counts vs percentages: confirm before computing
- Pie of
- Bars total , shares
- E2-47: no distribution stated answer (disputed source)
- Inventing numbers is always wrong — flag missing data instead
Worked example
Survey names no app-preference counts. ?
- No distribution no sample space.
- Cannot be computed from the stem.
Unsolvable as written (source issue)
Classic trap
Lesson 12 of 12
Mixed Exam Tactics and Bounds Checks
Learn the idea
Key rules to memorize
- Bounds: ; partition sums to
- E3-48 check:
- Outlier present median; symmetric mean is fine
- ;
- Syllabus time targets: probability , statistics per question
Worked example
Two dice: ?
- Pairs: — 4 of 36.
- Simplify .
Classic trap
Master formula sheet
Classical
- (equally-likely )
- ; ,
- ;
Counting
- — order matters
- — order irrelevant
- ;
Combine & condition
- Mutually exclusive:
- Independent:
- Total: ; Bayes:
Statistics
- Mean ; grouped
- Median: odd -th ordered; even middle-two average
- Mode: most frequent value
- Variance ;
- Range ; all values identical
Traps & recognition
12 classic traps
- Wrong total in : die even is , not .
- Permuting a team: , not .
- Case-bashing at-least-one instead of one complement subtraction (E1-48).
- Forgetting : heart-or-king is , not .
- Conditioning without shrinking: , not .
- Multiplying dependent draws: no-replacement .
- Mutually exclusive independent (positive probabilities are dependent).
- Reading as : split the system (E3-48).
- Unsorted median, or averaging all values for even .
- Variance in data units: root it for ; divide grouped means by .
- Inventing E2-47 numbers: no distribution means unsolvable — flag it.
- Probabilities outside : bounds-check every answer.
Fast problem recognition
Favourable over total
Verify equal likelihood, count , then . Bounds-check .
Choose / team / committee
Order irrelevant ; arrangements / ranks / codes .
At least one
Complement at once: . E1-48 zodiac is the model.
Or with overlap
Add then subtract the intersection; add directly only if mutually exclusive.
Given / knowing that
Shrink to the given set, then .
Two trials / with replacement
Test independence; if independent, multiply.
Balls with or-probabilities
Convert to counts ( total), solve the system — E3-48 pattern.
Mean / median / mode
Sort first; even averages the middle two; outliers median.
Practice — 48 problems
0/0 correct
- PP-C-01basic · prob-sample-spaceOne fair die:
- PP-C-02basic · prob-sample-spaceTwo fair coins:
- PP-C-03basic · prob-sample-spaceOne card from 52:
- PP-C-04basic · prob-sample-space
- PP-C-05basic · prob-counting
- PP-C-06basic · prob-counting
- PP-C-07basic · prob-counting
- PP-C-08basic · prob-countingChoose a 3-person team from 8 (order irrelevant): how many?
- PP-C-09basic · prob-complementZodiac:
- PP-C-10basic · prob-complement:
- PP-C-11basic · prob-complementDie rolled 3 times:
- PP-C-12basic · prob-complement:
- PP-C-13basic · prob-additionDie:
- PP-C-14basic · prob-addition, , :
- PP-C-15basic · prob-additionMutually exclusive : , :
- PP-C-16basic · prob-additionCard:
- PP-C-17intermediate · prob-conditionalDie, given even:
- PP-C-18intermediate · prob-conditional, :
- PP-C-19intermediate · prob-conditionalBag , first drawn red (kept out):
- PP-C-20intermediate · prob-conditional, :
- PP-C-21intermediate · prob-independenceTwo fair coins:
- PP-C-22intermediate · prob-independenceIndependent : , :
- PP-C-23intermediate · prob-independenceMutually exclusive with positive probabilities are
- PP-C-24intermediate · prob-independenceDie twice:
- PP-C-25intermediate · prob-urn-systemsE3-48 balls:
- PP-C-26intermediate · prob-urn-systemsE3-48 balls:
- PP-C-27intermediate · prob-urn-systemsE3-48 balls:
- PP-C-28intermediate · prob-urn-systemsUrn I , urn II , urn picked fairly:
- PP-C-29intermediate · stat-centersMean of
- PP-C-30intermediate · stat-centersMedian of
- PP-C-31intermediate · stat-centersMode of
- PP-C-32intermediate · stat-centersMedian of
- PP-C-33advanced · stat-spreadPopulation variance of
- PP-C-34advanced · stat-spreadStd dev of
- PP-C-35advanced · stat-spreadmeans
- PP-C-36advanced · stat-spreadRange of
- PP-C-37advanced · stat-tablesScores (2), (3), (5): mean =
- PP-C-38advanced · stat-tablesSame table: total frequency =
- PP-C-39advanced · stat-tablesSame table: range =
- PP-C-40advanced · stat-tablesSame table: median =
- PP-C-41advanced · stat-chartsRunning-apps survey (E2-47, no counts given):
- PP-C-42advanced · stat-chartsPie sector of students =
- PP-C-43advanced · stat-chartsBars : total =
- PP-C-44advanced · stat-chartsHeavily skewed data with outliers: best center is the
- PP-C-45advanced · prob-stat-mixedWhich cannot be a probability?
- PP-C-46advanced · prob-stat-mixedE3-48 colour probabilities sum to
- PP-C-47advanced · prob-stat-mixedTwo dice:
- PP-C-48advanced · prob-stat-mixedTwo dice:
Previous CSCA exam questions
Real questions from the Dec 2025, Jan 2026 and Apr 2026 papers that test this chapter — solved with the thinking shown. This chapter has 3 probability questions (E1-48, E2-47, E3-48) and 0 statistics questions so far, which is why the lessons teach the full syllabus, not just past papers. Answers solved by the app (the source papers publish no official key); items with source errors are marked and still teach the correct math.
3 exam questions · 0/0 correct
- Dec 2025 · Q48probabilityZodiac: P(at least two of three share an animal) =
- Jan 2026 · Q47probabilitysource issueRunning apps survey: P(two picked students prefer different apps) =
No correct option in the source paper
Source issue: the question states no app-preference numbers — unsolvable as written.Correct math
No preference distribution is given, so the probability cannot be computed.Full solution — 3 steps
- The question states no app-preference numbers.
- Without a distribution no probability can be computed.
- Source issue — unsolvable as written.
- Apr 2026 · Q48probability12 balls: P(red)=1/3, P(yellow or green)=5/12, P(black or yellow)=5/12: P(yellow, black, green) =
Exam checklist
0/10 checked
Probability
Statistics
One-minute memory sheet
- Order? Teams , lineups .
- At least one : zodiac .
- Or means minus overlap: heart-king .
- Given shrinks the space: even .
- Independent multiplies; exclusive adds; never both.
- Balls: counts first — , , , .
- Sort before median; even averages two.
- Variance squared, plain; divides.
Related guides
- 30-day study plan → fit this chapter into a week-by-week system
- 75-second pacing rule → hold 75s/question once the content clicks
- Top 10 mistakes → the error patterns that cost the most points
Last reviewed Sep 2026 · GetCSCA editors